Tropical Storm Dennis (as of 10 a.m. Tuesday)

[ticka1]

The latest email from Jeff on this system.

Tropical depression forms in the SE Caribbean Sea.

Potential for a hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico
this weekend.

Satellite data including Dvorak T numbers, IR images, and early
morning visible images indicate the depression is becoming better
organized and will likely be upgraded on the 1000am ADV.

Track:

Unlike Cindy, # 4 is moving rapidly west embedded in the deep easterly
flow on the south side of a large ridge over the western Bahamas. This
ridge is forecast to maintain its intensity through the forecast cycle
allowing a W to WNW motion through the next 36-48 hours. After 36
hours, # 4 will slow and begin to turn toward the NW around the SW
side of the W ATL ridge. This track is supported by all dynamical
guidance, however it should be clearly noted that guidance continues
to shift left (west) with each run and # 4 is already west and south
of the current NHC track. Given the 72- 96 hours model tracks and NHC
guidance a hurricane is likely in the Thursday to Saturday period from
S FL to the NE Yucatan coast.

Intensity:

Atmospheric conditions are extremely favorable for intensification of
# 4 including a 200mb anticyclone over the system, warm SST's, and
high oceanic heat content. Upper level outflow is excellent in all
quadrants, and the system has a large envelope of tropical moisture
surrounding it. The SHIPS intensity model realizes the conditions and
makes # 4 a hurricane in 36-48 hours and has it near 100mph in 72
hours. The GFDL also supports a hurricane in the 48 hour time frame
and I see no reason why # 4 will not be a hurricane in the next 2 days.

Use the following graphics with the understanding that 72 hour
forecast track errors are near 300 miles

Jeff Lindner

[BaytownWeatherWatcher]

Any guesstimate where this depression will wind up making landfall?

[ticka1]

Anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico for now. Until it gets into the GOM - I think everyone needs to keep an eye on this storm.

[ticka1]

Latest Email from Jeff:

Tropical Storm Watch is issued for the south coast of the Dominican
Republic.

Potential for a hurricane in the SE Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Gulf coast residents should review hurricane preparedness plans and
have hurricane supply kits fully stocked.

Earliest ever that 4 tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic
basin.

Based on satellite intensity estimates, # 4 is upgraded to a tropical
storms with T numbers of 2.5.


Track:

Guidance continues to trend westward with each run and the entire
guidance cluster has shifted 50-100 miles west with the last run. It
would appear the smaller models are following the GFS lead from
earlier with a far western outlier track. The GFS builds large scale
ridge over the Great Lakes forcing Dennis more westward and deeper
into the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, Dennis is embedded within the
strong easterlies on the south side of a ridge of high pressure over
the Bahamas and should continue on a W to WNW track for the next 36
hours. After 36 hours the storm will slow as the western edge of the
ridge weakens and turn more toward the NW. Current guidance brings the
system between SE Cuba and the island of Jamaica and then along the
south coast of Cuba. The models no longer indicate a hard right turn
they were showing this morning and yesterday which may spare FL, but
greatly increases the risk further westward.

Intensity:

Conditions are favorable for intensification and SHIPS brings Dennis
to a hurricane in 36 hours and 112mph in 96 hours. I see no reason why
Dennis will not be a hurricane. The current NHC guidance suggest a
category 1 75kt (85mph) hurricane in the NW Caribbean Sea and the SE
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It needs to be clearly stated that we are
not good at intensity forecast and Dennis could be much stronger and
more in line with the SHIPS guidance than the NHC guidance.


Residents should take this time to review their preparedness plans,
evacuation routes, and prepare a hurricane supply kit.



Latest Model Guidance: (Note the west shift in the two images)

Last nights model Runs:

IR floater Image:

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html)
(must enable Java)







Jeff Lindner

[archergirl66]

Not that I want to wish a storm on us, but SE Gulf means we will just be hotter and drier here.... :( I don't think I can take much more!

[ticka1]

Same thing here Gina - its so dry in our yard - everything is dying. I am going to West Texas near Bandera/Vanderpool area for the weekend - I hope this storm goes elsewhere so I don't have to worry about it while on our weekend vacation.

[ticka1]

Recon is flying into Dennis right now. We should know more with this afternoon's advisory.

[longtalltexan79]

I'm still down with my back, only getting up because I need to move some so the other muscles don't cramp up on me *thank god for my nieces laptop*, and now this storm is bearing down on the GOM...this one could have the potential to be something nasty, so I'm keeping my eye on it as much as I can being in bed...this is the second time this year I have thrown my back out and it's painful...made my holiday yesterday uncomfortable...anyway we need the rain, but not the damage!

[Rip76]

Looks to be moving due west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

[ticka1]

That's what I am seeing too Rip76. Going to be an interesting week and weekend watching Dennis.

[ticka1]

Check out this link on the history of storms that enter into the GOM during the month of July.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200504_climo.gif

[robinsonfirstaid]

Dennis is going to be a tricky storm. From the model output that I'm seeing I think it's going to take more of the southern track. I'm not going to predicte a landfall this early, but I will say that I think LA and MS better be ready again! I think it will make landfall as a strong cat. 1 or possibly weak cat. 2....

[Alabamaboy]

I saw on the CMC models yesterday that it has "4" storms back to back. I hope its way off track

[robinsonfirstaid]

This is a computer model graphic that I found on my local TV station's website. the SHIPS model is strengthening this system into a cat. 3 hurricane by Friday. I think that is a little overdone, but you never know.



http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200504_model.gif

[archergirl66]

Wow, the BAMM and the GFS seem to be aiming right for us here in SE Texas... :crazy-eye

[ticka1]

Looks like the models are moving back east just like they did with Cindy. This one could be going to LA/Florida panhandle. The NHC 5 day forecast shows landfall in that region.

I guess the high pressure will be far enough east to allow Dennis to be pulled up in that region or the High pressure over Texas will push it in this direction.

[Rip76]

I see this.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/090057.shtml?3day

Then I look at this...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

won't this thing have to start turning NW, now to hit Jamaica? :wtf: