ticka1
05-28-2005, 10:40 AM
We are suppose to be under the gun here in SE Texas. Here is the email I received from JeffL last night.
Area will be under the gun the next several days. We could easily make
up our entire dry spell deficit by the middle of next week.
Discussion:
Stalled frontal boundary extends from near College Station to
Galveston with dewpoints in the lower 60's northeast of this boundary
and in the upper 60's SW of the boundary. MCS which affected our SW
zones yesterday is now in the Gulf. Lots of mid level cloud debris
left this morning so heating will be slightly reduced. With that said,
convective/trigger temps. are within reach and thunderstorms should
begin to develop by early afternoon.
Weekend:
Saturday through Monday are looking very wet as multiple MCS's cross
the state. No time period looks the best for rainfall, although there
is some hinting that Saturday night through early Monday could be a
big event. Upper level winds go strongly divergent on Sunday as upper
level low near Baja ejects into SW TX. PWS pool to near 2.0 inches and
steering winds weaken considerably. This all points to slow moving
heavy rainfall. Any severe threat will be dependant on shear values
and degree of heating. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with
isolated 4-6 inches can be expected by Monday across SE TX.
Next Week:
Wet pattern appears to become entrenched over the area as the weekend
troughs lifts out only to be replace by another trough around the
middle of next week. Daily heat driven showers and thunderstorms look
possible through most of next week.
Tropics:
A review of sea surface temperatures (SST's) and sea level pressure
reveal and very disturbing find. SST's are running near record levels
over the central and western Atlantic east of the Caribbean Islands.
In fact, current SST's are warmer now in May than during the entire
2004 hurricane season. Sea level pressures in the Caribbean Sea have
been running in the 1008 mb to 1012 mb range since early May which is
quite low. It is no mistake that the signs from the tropics are
pointing at a very active season. With that said, Dr Gray will raise
his expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones on the 31st to 15
named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes which falls close
in line with NOAA's forecast of 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes,
and 4-6 major hurricanes.
Area will be under the gun the next several days. We could easily make
up our entire dry spell deficit by the middle of next week.
Discussion:
Stalled frontal boundary extends from near College Station to
Galveston with dewpoints in the lower 60's northeast of this boundary
and in the upper 60's SW of the boundary. MCS which affected our SW
zones yesterday is now in the Gulf. Lots of mid level cloud debris
left this morning so heating will be slightly reduced. With that said,
convective/trigger temps. are within reach and thunderstorms should
begin to develop by early afternoon.
Weekend:
Saturday through Monday are looking very wet as multiple MCS's cross
the state. No time period looks the best for rainfall, although there
is some hinting that Saturday night through early Monday could be a
big event. Upper level winds go strongly divergent on Sunday as upper
level low near Baja ejects into SW TX. PWS pool to near 2.0 inches and
steering winds weaken considerably. This all points to slow moving
heavy rainfall. Any severe threat will be dependant on shear values
and degree of heating. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with
isolated 4-6 inches can be expected by Monday across SE TX.
Next Week:
Wet pattern appears to become entrenched over the area as the weekend
troughs lifts out only to be replace by another trough around the
middle of next week. Daily heat driven showers and thunderstorms look
possible through most of next week.
Tropics:
A review of sea surface temperatures (SST's) and sea level pressure
reveal and very disturbing find. SST's are running near record levels
over the central and western Atlantic east of the Caribbean Islands.
In fact, current SST's are warmer now in May than during the entire
2004 hurricane season. Sea level pressures in the Caribbean Sea have
been running in the 1008 mb to 1012 mb range since early May which is
quite low. It is no mistake that the signs from the tropics are
pointing at a very active season. With that said, Dr Gray will raise
his expected number of Atlantic tropical cyclones on the 31st to 15
named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes which falls close
in line with NOAA's forecast of 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes,
and 4-6 major hurricanes.