Questions about NHC

[jfranklin]

In addition to tropical cyclone questions, I'll be happy to answer questions about NHC procedures, either in this forum of the regular tropical wx forum.

James

[jeffl]

How is the work structure at NHC and the forecasting process? How is the stress level during active periods? How has the internet affected the way your forecast discussions are released as well as other products?

Is every forecast package (when the US is threatened) accompanied by a hotline call to local NWSFO being threatened? What are your thoughts on the 400PM CDT forecast package being issued usually after the local NWS afternoon forecast package? This always seems to be a problem area between the NWS and media outlets with respect to timing and a double work load for NWS staff.

Can other agencies (say county) by included within NHC conference calls, or is the plan for NHC to coordinate with local NWS and then NWS hold conf calls with all local agencies? That is how it seems to be done right now.

Suggestions:

Rainfall graphic of some sort. Showing expected rainfall and impacted locations.

Inland wind impact graphic based on vegetation type and extent along with increasing potentail with elevation rise. This is typically included in written form in ADV but I think a graphic may be helpful.

Thanks in advance.

[jfranklin]

How is the work structure at NHC and the forecasting process? How is the stress level during active periods? How has the internet affected the way your forecast discussions are released as well as other products?

Is every forecast package (when the US is threatened) accompanied by a hotline call to local NWSFO being threatened? What are your thoughts on the 400PM CDT forecast package being issued usually after the local NWS afternoon forecast package? This always seems to be a problem area between the NWS and media outlets with respect to timing and a double work load for NWS staff.

Can other agencies (say county) by included within NHC conference calls, or is the plan for NHC to coordinate with local NWS and then NWS hold conf calls with all local agencies? That is how it seems to be done right now.

Suggestions:

Rainfall graphic of some sort. Showing expected rainfall and impacted locations.

Inland wind impact graphic based on vegetation type and extent along with increasing potentail with elevation rise. This is typically included in written form in ADV but I think a graphic may be helpful.

Thanks in advance.

Wow, that's a lot of questions all at once. Let's see, I'll start with the easiest ones first.

Stress. Plenty of it. Could spend a long time talking about this, and we can get to it eventually, but bottom line is that once a U.S. threat develops, it's a whole new ball game, where every decision you make is under a microscope. You have to try to tune it out as best you can.

The Internet has never been declared an official dissemination medium by the NWS (as far as I know), but we put a lot of effort into our web page. We keep tabs on the number of hits our site gets so we know this is how an awful lot of people are getting their storm information.

We do a conference call 1 h before advisory time for EVERY Atlantic advisory package. All the WFOs are free to listen to every call, but we do specifically dial up any threatened regions. These calls are for the WFOs, the NWS regions, and our military partners. We expect the WFOs to then brief local officials. We also have a "Hurricane Liaison Team", a NOAA/FEMA joint effort, with whom we work so that they can bear the brunt of briefing the local EM communities.

Our advisory cycle is based on the synoptic observation times: 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. Advisories go out 3 h after synoptic time. We know that this is not always optimal for media or WFOs but we don't feel as though we can change this schedule. This is a topic that comes up regularly at our post season internal NOAA Hurricane Conference!

HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) is responsible for the rainfall statements that appear in the Public Advisory. I believe that they do put out rainfall graphics, but I don't think I've ever looked for them. Do the WFOs put out rainfall graphics on their web sites? If this kind of product were to be produced it would have to come from either the WFOs or HPC, as they are the ones doing the precipitation forecasting.

Not sure what you mean by a wind impact graphic. You mean a graphical forecast of wind speeds by location?

[ticka1]

What does WFO stand for?

[jeffl]

What does WFO stand for?

Weather Forecast Office....the local NWS offices.

[jeffl]

Wow, that's a lot of questions all at once. Let's see, I'll start with the easiest ones first.

Stress. Plenty of it. Could spend a long time talking about this, and we can get to it eventually, but bottom line is that once a U.S. threat develops, it's a whole new ball game, where every decision you make is under a microscope. You have to try to tune it out as best you can.

The Internet has never been declared an official dissemination medium by the NWS (as far as I know), but we put a lot of effort into our web page. We keep tabs on the number of hits our site gets so we know this is how an awful lot of people are getting their storm information.

We do a conference call 1 h before advisory time for EVERY Atlantic advisory package. All the WFOs are free to listen to every call, but we do specifically dial up any threatened regions. These calls are for the WFOs, the NWS regions, and our military partners. We expect the WFOs to then brief local officials. We also have a "Hurricane Liaison Team", a NOAA/FEMA joint effort, with whom we work so that they can bear the brunt of briefing the local EM communities.

Our advisory cycle is based on the synoptic observation times: 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. Advisories go out 3 h after synoptic time. We know that this is not always optimal for media or WFOs but we don't feel as though we can change this schedule. This is a topic that comes up regularly at our post season internal NOAA Hurricane Conference!

HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) is responsible for the rainfall statements that appear in the Public Advisory. I believe that they do put out rainfall graphics, but I don't think I've ever looked for them. Do the WFOs put out rainfall graphics on their web sites? If this kind of product were to be produced it would have to come from either the WFOs or HPC, as they are the ones doing the precipitation forecasting.

Not sure what you mean by a wind impact graphic. You mean a graphical forecast of wind speeds by location?

HPC does put out rainfall graphics, but they tend to be really bad and mirror the GFS output (ie flip flop with each guidance run). I use to use them but now only glance at their guidance.

The local NWS offices just repeat what the NHC advisory says which is usually "5-10 inches can be expected along the track of the storm".

[jfranklin]

In decreasing order of skill with respect to tropical cyclone forecasting, we have:

track
intensity
structure (wind distribution)
rainfall.

Accurate forecasts of rainfall distribution associated with tropical cyclones are not going to happen anytime soon, I'm afraid.

James