sparky
04-29-2005, 05:15 AM
Public Severe Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 290845
ALZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-291645-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005
VALID 290845Z - 291645Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND
ALABAMA.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION TODAY.
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN/MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SECOND ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA
DURING THE EVENING...WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 04/29/2005
...MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS RECOVERING WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTING THE
PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND PORTIONS OF
THE TN VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE FINALLY
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN NWD INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX...SRN LA WHERE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOTED AT 05Z.
STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO AR WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO
THE MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY MID
AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN OK/NRN AR WILL AID
INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE
DAY UTILIZING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REINFORCING E-W
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS AR INTO WRN KY. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM
SECTOR INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AR
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
THE NEED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN AR IN PARTICULAR APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VEERING
PROFILES AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
DISCRETE AND THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR OR BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES.
LASTLY...EVENING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS...HOWEVER STRONG FOCUS
ALONG BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS MS/AL INTO WRN GA BY MORNING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY.
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 290845
ALZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-291645-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005
VALID 290845Z - 291645Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHWEST ALABAMA
EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND
ALABAMA.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION TODAY.
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN/MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A SECOND ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA
DURING THE EVENING...WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..HART.. 04/29/2005
...MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS RECOVERING WARM SECTOR HIGHLIGHTING THE
PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...EXTENDING EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES AND PORTIONS OF
THE TN VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE FINALLY
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO RETURN NWD INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX...SRN LA WHERE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATES MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOTED AT 05Z.
STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO AR WILL ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO
THE MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF STATES...SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY MID
AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NERN OK/NRN AR WILL AID
INITIAL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL AT TIMES AS IT SPREADS EWD DURING THE
DAY UTILIZING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND REINFORCING E-W
BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS AR INTO WRN KY. FARTHER SOUTH...WARM
SECTOR INITIATION SHOULD BE DELAYED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS AR
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
THE NEED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN AR IN PARTICULAR APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VEERING
PROFILES AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
DISCRETE AND THUS THE PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO MORE LINEAR OR BOW SHAPED STRUCTURES.
LASTLY...EVENING MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING STORMS...HOWEVER STRONG FOCUS
ALONG BOUNDARY MAY ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS MS/AL INTO WRN GA BY MORNING. NRN EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY.