Tropic Talk

[StingRay]

New place to talk about the tropics until they decide to kick in again....For this morning we have:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 1120 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


If that isn't boring, I don't know what is.....:s_lastyea

[StingRay]

Wake up ya'll. African train is pulling out of the station again...or at least it is tonight when I'm looking at it.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF

[ticka1]

Check out the wave that came off of Africa and looks like its staying together over the Atlantic this morning. Will it be a player or bite the dust? Only time will tell. No Invest up on it yet .

At least its something to monitor.

[StingRay]

Very observant dear twin. I hadn't looked until you mentioned it. Good thing you did! Nice little blob, let's follow it around shall we?

[Coriolis]

Just in case you have not read the report see below:

TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF W
AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HOVMOELLER
DIAGRAMS SHOW A DISTINCT CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS W AFRICA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TIMESECTIONS FROM BAMAKO
AND DAKAR SHOW A WAVE PASSAGE PRIMARILY BELOW 800 MB. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE TILTED TO THE EAST WITH HEIGHT...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 100 NM AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND
THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THE VERTICAL SOUNDINGS FROM W AFRICA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM MET-8 ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDES. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 19W-23.5W.

[StingRay]

Just in case you have not read the report see below:

TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF W
AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. HOVMOELLER
DIAGRAMS SHOW A DISTINCT CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS W AFRICA
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TIMESECTIONS FROM BAMAKO
AND DAKAR SHOW A WAVE PASSAGE PRIMARILY BELOW 800 MB. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE TILTED TO THE EAST WITH HEIGHT...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 100 NM AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND
THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THE VERTICAL SOUNDINGS FROM W AFRICA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM MET-8 ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDES. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 19W-23.5W.
Oh, I love it when you talk dirty to me..........................Should I start practicing the tropical tango????

[Coriolis]

Only if you lead, I have 5 left feet!

[StingRay]

5???? Only 5????

[StingRay]

Nothing happening officially but sure is a pretty blob to look at.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF

[stormy]

Oh, I love it when you talk dirty to me..........................Should I start practicing the tropical tango????
ok stingray lets keep it clean :s_joke: this is great. thats a nice blob, hope this is something we can follow and keep me off the games.

[ticka1]

Wave coming off Africa is looking decent this morning. Let's see if it can maintain its tropical features and develop.

Also, a blowup in the Eastern Caribbean this morning - doesn't look to be much but a blob. There is alot of shear down in the Caribbean and will probably inhibit any develop, but it could get make it to the GOM and perhaps develop could happen. Another watch and wait system.

That's my update on the tropics this Saturday morning from my untrained eyes.

[Coriolis]

Hmmm - maybe the wet phase of the MJO is going to start -

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 18N34W IS BASICALLY THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM AFRICAN AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
PRESENT W OF 35W. A BIT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IS COMING INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 50W OTHERWISE SHEAR IS
FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER HIGH IS JUST NE OF THE CAPE VERDES WITH
FORECAST DIVERGENCE OVER THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY CAUSING
A RE-FIRING OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN
THE DEEP TROPICS... PERHAPS HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVE
PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION.

Also -
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_mjo_index/mjo_index.html

[ticka1]

Okay just what is the Madden-Julian Oscillation and what do you mean by the wet phase? How will that affect the tropical development?

Thanks.

[Coriolis]

Ticka - there is a wet phase and a dry phase. Rather than me try to describe it here is a link.
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

Hope that helps and maybe the mets on the board can do a better job.

Jim

[StingRay]

Ticka, you also might want to check out the stuff Jason did up at www.independantwx.com (http://www.independantwx.com). He did an Extended Range Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season Forecast that although very detailed, also discusses the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) the ATC (Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Just some facts to remember:

When El Nino is in place there is strong shear in the lower lats of the Atlantic, which dumps our tropical systems into the trash. BUT in the higher lats, there is MORE tropical activity. Reverse it for La Nina. Example: 1983 was an El Nino year but what did WE have? Alicia! Where did it form? Off Lousiana.

When SSTA's are warm-usually El Nino, SSTA's are cool-La Nina, SSTA's Normal-Neutral.....and the SSTA's are over a period of sequential months, not just one or two, they must be averaged out.
Their whole work up is fascinating to read but get a pen to take notes so you don't get overwhelmed. I LOVED it.

[StingRay]

Dead, Boring, Nothing happening.........................Don't tell me I'm gonna sleep through the rest of hurricane season................................
Here, have a cute picture to look at: