jeffl
04-08-2005, 06:39 AM
Active weather possible by Sunday with a chance of severe convection.
Upper pattern slowly changing over the US with next upper low progged
to cross the plains Sunday into Monday. Gulf of Mexico will open up
later today and moisture will begin to return. In addition, large
smoke plume over the southern Gulf will be heading in this direction
and should arrive late Saturday evening creating hazy conditions
Sunday and Monday.
Dry line will sharpen over C and N TX Sunday afternoon. Strong surface
heating should bust the cap by 3-4pm with rapid severe thunderstorm
formation. CAPE of 2000 J/kg, LI's in the -4 to -6 range, and
favorable jet dynamics support severe thunderstorms. Overall thinking
is that once again capping will increase southward and it is
questionable as to the south and east extent of the activity.
Late Sunday evening a 90-110 kt jet streak will rotate through the
base of the trough plowing ENE from N Mexico across SC TX into SE TX.
Well formed surface low over OK should maintain a good low level jet
through Sunday night with PWS rising to 1.1-1.3 inches. Cooling with
this jet streak will probably break the cap over SC and SE TX allowing
deep convection.
NOTE: upper troughs /lows of this nature tend to eject slower than
models forecast due to their cut-off and digy nature. Most of the
action may not take place until Monday or at least 12-24 hours slower
than all current guidance.
Upper pattern slowly changing over the US with next upper low progged
to cross the plains Sunday into Monday. Gulf of Mexico will open up
later today and moisture will begin to return. In addition, large
smoke plume over the southern Gulf will be heading in this direction
and should arrive late Saturday evening creating hazy conditions
Sunday and Monday.
Dry line will sharpen over C and N TX Sunday afternoon. Strong surface
heating should bust the cap by 3-4pm with rapid severe thunderstorm
formation. CAPE of 2000 J/kg, LI's in the -4 to -6 range, and
favorable jet dynamics support severe thunderstorms. Overall thinking
is that once again capping will increase southward and it is
questionable as to the south and east extent of the activity.
Late Sunday evening a 90-110 kt jet streak will rotate through the
base of the trough plowing ENE from N Mexico across SC TX into SE TX.
Well formed surface low over OK should maintain a good low level jet
through Sunday night with PWS rising to 1.1-1.3 inches. Cooling with
this jet streak will probably break the cap over SC and SE TX allowing
deep convection.
NOTE: upper troughs /lows of this nature tend to eject slower than
models forecast due to their cut-off and digy nature. Most of the
action may not take place until Monday or at least 12-24 hours slower
than all current guidance.