Tornado Outbreak

[jeffl]

Large damaging tornadoes moving across MS currently. High school has taken a direct hit in Rankin Co. with severe damage being reported.

Numerous supercells producing tornadoes continue to develop and move across SE LA into MS. 0-1 km helicity values of 200-250 from N of New Orleans to C MS and C AL are supporting strong low level rotation and violent tornadoes.

As atmosphere warms with moist southerly flow and surface heating additional supercells will be possible over MS into AL. Low LCL's, high low level helicity, and good 0-6 km shear will support large supercells will all severe modes possible.

Tornado Emergency continues to Rankin Co. MS

[CalUWxBill]

man I can't win, I don't have much experience with severe wx forecasting. I thought that active convection would refire until the afternoon, but I definitely mis-judged it, I knew the line would remain potentially sever, but yeah the LL jet is really helping out this one.

[jeffl]

man I can't win, I don't have much experience with severe wx forecasting. I thought that active convection would refire until the afternoon, but I definitely mis-judged it, I knew the line would remain potentially sever, but yeah the LL jet is really helping out this one.


You did however have a mod risk outline well before anybody else did where numerous tornadoes have touched down today. In fact SPC has maintained their slight risk even with the numerous touchdowns.

[CalUWxBill]

eh in retrospect it was only on the immediate Gulf Coast, clearly the outbreak was quite expansive in Mississippi. most of my moderate area was in southern Alabama. man those storms refired like crazy in the wake of the original line. Might even have tornadoes into TN and Eastern AR. Certainly a powerful event that many were playing down. I think I understimated how effective this occluded low that is winding down. We only have a moderate jet max but the diffluence aloft and the strong low-level jet combined with sfc heating of a very moist surface and dry air alot has created an extremely unstable scenario, a bit off of my thinking. but, Yes I did well, but I always feel that I should have been able to see the things that go wrong in my forecast before then. but, I'm just beginning, so I should do better in the future.

[Coriolis]

Bill -

Sounds like you were just about right. People were told of the possiblities of the storms at least 24 hrs in advance. The fluid dynamics of the storm looked correct and if you went Penny Henny - and then your forecast is incorrect - then you get people who will become very complacent. I know you have to weigh on the side of caution for lives and property sake, but you have to look possible consequences in the Penny Henny scenario. Just my own opinion!

Jim

[CalUWxBill]

Yeah I agree completely, now this was for school, not for the public, but I certainly think a forecaster should always reveal the possibilities.

[Coriolis]

Bill -
I am sure that even the "TV forecasters" thought there might me a chance of severe (and even the possiblity of tornados). I agree that the forecaster should bring out the possiblities. Yeah - I know this was for school not for the public...SOOO think you should get a "high grade"!!