ticka1
03-26-2005, 07:39 AM
I am heading out to take chas racing her junior dragster - so the rain has to stay away until after 12 noon. :-) Storms building out around the San Angelo area - but they look to be moving more Northeast. Jeff if you stop by - please post your thoughts for today.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 261152 AAA
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES ROUGHLY ALONG I-10. POTENT H5 TROF WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SE INTO WESTERN & NORTHERN TX TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE AND RACE OFF TO THE ENE. MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY
SHALLOW (BELOW H85) BUT THE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE NOT SHOWING AS
SIGNIFICANT OF CAP IN PLACE AS PREVIOUS SEVERAL RUNS HAVE. GIVEN
ENOUGH HEATING...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...CAP MAY BE ABLE
TO BE BROKEN ALLOWING THE LLVL MOISTURE TO BECOME A PLAYER IN THE
BALLGAME. STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW EVERYTHING IS GONNA PLAY OUT
GIVEN ALL THE VARIABLES IN PLACE...SOME NEGATIVE OTHERS POSITIVE
(CAP, HEATING, JET POSITION, MOISTURE). ATMOS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN ANY BREAKS OF SUN. THE
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE'RE GOING TO BUMP UP THE POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NRN ZONES AND
TAPER THEM TO 40% AT THE COAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAJORITY OF
ACTION WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE NE ZONES SEEING THE HIGHEST POPS. ALL WX HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WIND, HAIL, TORNADOS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO THE THE PRIMARY THREAT. POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE A TAD HIGH...AND WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ANYTHING DEVELOP THERE IF CAP DOES NOT BREAK...BUT WOULD LIKE TO
ERROR ON ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DYNAMICS
(6Z ETA NOW SHOWING SE TX IN THE RRQ OF 140KT JET THIS AFTN...00Z
ETA/GFS RUNS SHOWED NEUTRAL POSITION).
THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
FOR SUN/SUN NT. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURING
THE AFTN ON SUN. GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS LATE MONDAY WITH
ONSHORE WINDS RESUMING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT THU/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH THE
SEA FOG AFFECTING SOME OF THE SOUTHERN METAR SITES. GENERALLY RAISED
THE VISIBILITY FORECASTS IN THIS SET OF TAFS WITH MOST SITES
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 2-3 SM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL OSCILLATE
BETWEEN 500-1500 FEET. NOT BUYING THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA SOCKED IN ALL DAY. PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION WHICH CLEARS THE LOW
CEILINGS/FOG OUT BY 18Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KCLL NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE LOW CEILINGS/FOG COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG 250 MB JET WILL REACH AREA THIS AFTERNOON ENABLING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE 18Z TO 24Z
WITH KCLL AND KIAH THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS THIS EVENING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. WHAT
STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...SO AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SEA FOG MAY BRIEFLY RETURN
TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT
PASSES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW OVERCAST DECK EXPECTED IN WAKE
OF FRONT. 35
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BAYS AND INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 NM
AT TIMES. MAIN STORY THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS POINT TOWARD
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE MARINE AREA
WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. MARINERS WILL WANT TO CHECK
ON THE WEATHER FREQUENTLY TODAY AND GET AN UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT
DUE TO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
WATERS JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED ADVISORY FLAGS FOR AT
LEAST THE 00 TO 60 NM WATERS AND MAYBE EVEN THE BAYS FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COULD GUST TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FEET OR HIGHER. SUNDAY WILL NOT BE
A FUN DAY ON THE WATERS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 46 61 41 74 / 60 40 05 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 49 63 42 75 / 50 50 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 54 63 51 69 / 40 40 10 0 0
NE COUNTIES / 70 70 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.GM...NONE.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 261152 AAA
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES ROUGHLY ALONG I-10. POTENT H5 TROF WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG SE INTO WESTERN & NORTHERN TX TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE AND RACE OFF TO THE ENE. MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY
SHALLOW (BELOW H85) BUT THE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE NOT SHOWING AS
SIGNIFICANT OF CAP IN PLACE AS PREVIOUS SEVERAL RUNS HAVE. GIVEN
ENOUGH HEATING...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING...CAP MAY BE ABLE
TO BE BROKEN ALLOWING THE LLVL MOISTURE TO BECOME A PLAYER IN THE
BALLGAME. STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW EVERYTHING IS GONNA PLAY OUT
GIVEN ALL THE VARIABLES IN PLACE...SOME NEGATIVE OTHERS POSITIVE
(CAP, HEATING, JET POSITION, MOISTURE). ATMOS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN ANY BREAKS OF SUN. THE
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE'RE GOING TO BUMP UP THE POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NRN ZONES AND
TAPER THEM TO 40% AT THE COAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAJORITY OF
ACTION WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE NE ZONES SEEING THE HIGHEST POPS. ALL WX HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WIND, HAIL, TORNADOS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO THE THE PRIMARY THREAT. POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PARTS OF THE CWA MAY BE A TAD HIGH...AND WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ANYTHING DEVELOP THERE IF CAP DOES NOT BREAK...BUT WOULD LIKE TO
ERROR ON ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF DYNAMICS
(6Z ETA NOW SHOWING SE TX IN THE RRQ OF 140KT JET THIS AFTN...00Z
ETA/GFS RUNS SHOWED NEUTRAL POSITION).
THINGS SHOULD WIND DOWN TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
FOR SUN/SUN NT. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURING
THE AFTN ON SUN. GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BEGINS LATE MONDAY WITH
ONSHORE WINDS RESUMING. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NEXT THU/FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH THE
SEA FOG AFFECTING SOME OF THE SOUTHERN METAR SITES. GENERALLY RAISED
THE VISIBILITY FORECASTS IN THIS SET OF TAFS WITH MOST SITES
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 2-3 SM THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL OSCILLATE
BETWEEN 500-1500 FEET. NOT BUYING THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA SOCKED IN ALL DAY. PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION WHICH CLEARS THE LOW
CEILINGS/FOG OUT BY 18Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KCLL NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE LOW CEILINGS/FOG COULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG 250 MB JET WILL REACH AREA THIS AFTERNOON ENABLING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE 18Z TO 24Z
WITH KCLL AND KIAH THE SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS THIS EVENING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. WHAT
STORMS DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...SO AVIATION
INTERESTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SEA FOG MAY BRIEFLY RETURN
TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD FRONT
PASSES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW OVERCAST DECK EXPECTED IN WAKE
OF FRONT. 35
&&
.MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BAYS AND INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 NM
AT TIMES. MAIN STORY THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS POINT TOWARD
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE MARINE AREA
WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. MARINERS WILL WANT TO CHECK
ON THE WEATHER FREQUENTLY TODAY AND GET AN UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT
DUE TO THE MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
WATERS JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED ADVISORY FLAGS FOR AT
LEAST THE 00 TO 60 NM WATERS AND MAYBE EVEN THE BAYS FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS COULD GUST TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FEET OR HIGHER. SUNDAY WILL NOT BE
A FUN DAY ON THE WATERS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 46 61 41 74 / 60 40 05 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 49 63 42 75 / 50 50 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 54 63 51 69 / 40 40 10 0 0
NE COUNTIES / 70 70 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.GM...NONE.