Any potential severe weather outbreak Easter weekend Jeff?

[ticka1]

Just curious - I'm off work Friday and free on Saturday. Would love to have time to chase if there is going to be any severe weather outbreak?

Thanks for your input.

[sparky]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/p_threats.gif


For Saturday March 26 - Monday March 28, 2005: The global models and their respective ensembles are in good agreement regarding the development of a storm system over Texas on Saturday. However, there are still differences among the models regarding the exact track and intensity of the system. The low will intensify in response to a vigorous upper level trough and its associated PVA. The low pressure system will track across the southeastern U.S. during the weekend and evolve into a complex storm system. The atmosphere will be dynamically and thermodynamically favorable for strong thunderstorms and possible severe weather from Texas and southeastern Oklahoma eastward into the Carolinas. Moisture inflow into the storm system will be abundant as strong southerly flow originating over the tropics feeds into the system. As a result, heavy rain and flooding are possible across the Southeast and much of the Mid-Atlantic. The best chances for heavy rain and flooding will be where the moist air interacts with the rugged terrain of the southern Appalachians over northeastern Georgia, the western portions of the Carolinas and western Virginia. Further west, an active Pacific jetstream will produce beneficial rain and snow across the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies

jeff can elaborate but i would say yes ticka

[ticka1]

Woohoo - something for me to look forward too!!!!! Suzi - you going to be available to chase this weekend?

[jeffl]

Feeling is that moisture may be shallow and cap intensity strong. No models really show any significant convection over SE TX, but have it mainly over NE TX, LA and into the SE US.

Given that the cap is already fairly strong on the AM soundings and winds above 850mb will be SW off the hot Mexican mountians it may be hard to overcome the CINH Saturday.

However, if we get more sun than forecast things could get going and severe would be a good bet.